A computational or analytical nightmare where the outcome depends on a vast number of input variables, many of which are unknown, unmeasurable, or change in real-time. Unlike a controlled experiment with few variables, here the interactions are so numerous that isolating cause and effect, or making reliable predictions, becomes a fool's errand.
*Example: Predicting the success of a startup. Variables include the team's skill, market timing, investor sentiment, technological shifts, competitor actions, regulatory changes, and pure luck. A VC's spreadsheet model with 20 key metrics is laughably simplistic against the true N-Variable Problem. Overconfident predictions are a sign of not grasping the variable space's sheer size.*
by Dumuabzu February 8, 2026
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